Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
